North Carolina vs. Wagner Predictions & Picks: Spread, Total – NCAA Tournament First Round

By Data Skrive

Thursday’s game at Spectrum Center has the No. 5 North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7) taking on the Wagner Seahawks (17-15) at 2:45 PM ET. Our computer prediction is a one-sided 81-57 victory, as our model heavily favors North Carolina.

According to our computer prediction, Wagner projects to cover the 24.5-point spread in its matchup versus North Carolina. The total is currently listed at 133.5, and the two teams are projected to hit the over.

North Carolina vs. Wagner Game Info & Odds

  • Date: Thursday, March 21, 2024
  • Time: 2:45 PM ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Where: Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Venue: Spectrum Center
  • Line: North Carolina -24.5
  • Point Total: 133.5

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North Carolina vs. Wagner Score Prediction

  • Prediction: North Carolina 81, Wagner 57

Spread & Total Prediction for North Carolina vs. Wagner

  • Pick ATS: Wagner (+24.5)
  • Pick OU: Over (133.5)

North Carolina’s record against the spread so far this season is 19-14-0, while Wagner’s is 13-11-0. The Tar Heels are 16-17-0 and the Seahawks are 10-14-0 in terms of going over the point total. The teams score 145.3 points per game, 11.8 more points than this matchup’s total. North Carolina has a 5-5 record against the spread while going 8-2 overall in the past 10 games. Wagner has gone 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its last 10 games.

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Other College Basketball Predictions

North Carolina Performance Insights

  • The Tar Heels have a +382 scoring differential, topping opponents by 11.3 points per game. They’re putting up 81.5 points per game to rank 22nd in college basketball and are allowing 70.2 per contest to rank 119th in college basketball.
  • The 41.1 rebounds per game North Carolina averages rank ninth in college basketball, and are 7.3 more than the 33.8 its opponents pull down per outing.
  • North Carolina connects on 7.9 three-pointers per game (127th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 7.0. It shoots 35.4% from deep while its opponents hit 31.4% from long range.
  • The Tar Heels’ 101.7 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 42nd in college basketball, and the 87.7 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 45th in college basketball.
  • North Carolina and its opponents have been mostly even in the turnover battle. The Tar Heels commit 9.9 per game (62nd in college basketball) and force 10.0 (303rd in college basketball play).

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Wagner Performance Insights

  • The Seahawks are outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game, with a +48 scoring differential overall. They put up 63.8 points per game (353rd in college basketball) and allow 62.3 per outing (seventh in college basketball).
  • Wagner averages 36.3 rebounds per game (123rd in college basketball) while allowing 35.0 per outing to opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 1.3 boards per game.
  • Wagner makes 7.2 three-pointers per game (209th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 6.5. It shoots 32.6% from deep, and its opponents shoot 29.5%.
  • Wagner has committed 8.8 turnovers per game (12th in college basketball), 1.4 fewer than the 10.2 it forces (279th in college basketball).

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